Modeling of Coronavirus Spread in Morocco using Statistical Approach: SIR Model

Por: Elhoucein LAYATI; Abdellah Ouigmane; Omar Ouhsine; Abdelaziz Moujane; Marcelo de Carvalho Alves; Bagyaraj Murugesan; Anirudh V. Mutalik; Mohamed El Ghachi

Autor contato: Marcelo de Carvalho Alves (marcelo.alves@ufla.br)

Resumo
The recently emerged Covid-19 virus has caused more than 65,872,391 infections and 1,523, 656 deaths up to December 8, 2020 worldwide. The disease continues to spread in all countries. The use of mathematical models in public health plays an important role in many aspects, such as rapid visualization of epidemiological information, monitoring, forecasting and estimating the spread of disease, and assisting in decision-making on pandemic prevention and control. The objective of this study is to show the role of SIR model in predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Moroccan kingdom and to estimate the time necessary for its disappearance. Thus, the results found following the use of the SIR model are almost similar to the results obtained by the Minister of Health in Morocco, so far we notice the rapid spread of this disease and 13August 2021, the Covid-19 will be 0 confirmed cases. Thus, the calculation of the basic reproduction number R0 gave a value of 2.003 which shows that the number of infected people does not stop increasing until a vaccine for this virus is found. In this case, the respect of the rules of hygiene and containment can lower the value of R0 and the spread of pandemic.

Palavras-chave: Covid-19, Morocco, SIR model, Basic reproduction number

Publicado em: Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques (2021)

Artigo completo: https://dormaj.org/index.php/jett/article/view/141

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Spread Mapping of Covid-19 in Morocco Using Geospatial Approach

Por: Elhoucein LAYATI; Abdellah Ouigmane; Marcelo de Carvalho Alves; Murugesan Bagyaraj; Mohamed ELGHACHI

Autor contato: Marcelo de Carvalho Alves (marcelo.alves@ufla.br)

Resumo
Most of the people infected in Morocco are triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19. The number of affected cases is currently rising day by day. As of July 16th, 2020, In Morocco, 15,165 cases were tested positive for COVID-19, including 239 deaths and 11,417 patients cured the highest number of Corona virus cases reported as Ministry of Health Department in Morocco. The COVID-19 virus threatens the health, economy, development and social life of individuals. The city needs to be conscious of the fight against this epidemic. GIS technology has played an important role in many aspects, including geospatial perception, geostatistical simulation and spatial knowledge enabling decision-making, mitigation and prediction including COVID-19. GIS has evolved reasonably rapidly and has a full technical route for data processing, modeling and map creation. However, in the battle against the popular endemic, the key challenge is to find ways of controlling conventional technological methods and to increase the quality and accuracy of the knowledge provided for social management. As a consequence, IDW and computational approaches are used to forecast potential cases in the region. Prediction of different parameters existing confirmed events, death and recovery of COVID-19. See reports have been used to take proactive measures in order to penetrate regions. The suggested method of understanding is effective within a certain context and would be a valuable tool for both governments and health authorities.

Palavras-chave: COVID-19 , GIS , Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) , Morocco , Spatial Distribution

Publicado em: Journal of Geographical Studies (2020)

Artigo completo: https://doi.org/10.21523/gcj5.20040104

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